3 Comments

I enjoyed reading this. I've caught bits and pieces from twitter, though I tend to avoid the "religious" accounts so the recap part was valuable.

IMO, the genie is out of the bottle and there is no slowing down. I view this as an arm's race now, just like the nuclear bomb, and I expect states to pursue their interests and fund their home companies to compete on the global stage.

Regulation is interesting. I'm a little cynical here - this technology is moving so fast and the creators don't fully understand it. I can't expect old, mostly lawyers, to understand it either. I do think something will be needed here, I'm not sure what.

I disagree with you on the "adults in the room" section. I think we will see a wide amount of models, many of them open source. I think they will begin to reach parity with commercial models. There will be no adult in the room at that point - and any hacker with a laptop will have access to AGI (if we see that in our lifetime).

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Thanks for reading! On the regulation front, I wonder if someday models will be smart enough that we just ask it how to regulate it to maximize a certain goal?

For the last section, it sounds like you're describing what is likely to happen, which I do mostly agree with - I think there'll probably be a 3-6 month overhang where the most sophisticated and well funded will stay ahead before open source catches up. Are you saying that that's better from a safety perspective, though? My main point is that that's probably worse

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I think it's better. Typically, if I'm not the one benefiting from the power, I prefer the ownership of that power to be distributed as much as possible. Makes it easier for negative effects to bubble up more quickly, inviting visibility, and ultimately quicker response time by society.

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